The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since 28 February. As of 13 April, vessels are still not moving in meaningful numbers. The last ships to leave before the blockade are now reaching their destinations, meaning the real supply gap is only beginning to materialise.   Key messages:   • Before the conflict began, the strait carried 30-35% of global crude oil, 20% of natural gas, and up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers.   • Food commodity prices have not risen yet because existing stocks are absorbing the shock. But if the strait traffic does not resume, the shocks to energy and fertilizer markets will translate into higher commodity and retail prices later in 2026 and into 2027.   • The crop calendar is the key constraint. As planting seasons begin, farmers must choose between absorbing higher input costs or reducing fertilizer and other input use. They need targeted, timebound support, as do low-income countries relying on food and fertilizer imports.   • The disruption is not contained to the Gulf or South Asia. It is moving from east to west and from south to north. Export restrictions by major producers risk compounding the supply shortfall.   • With diplomatic solutions and the right policy, there is still time to contain the current situation and prevent it from turning into a global food crisis.   This episode was recorded on 11 April 2025.Host: Katrin ParkProduced by: Eduardo De La ChicaCopyright: FAO